← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Thu, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 41% | 48% | 2.39 | value: +16% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 33% | 27% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Dries Wuytens · Heracles |
| 46' | ⚽ | Nick Proschwitz · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 74' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 76' | ⚽ | Nick Proschwitz · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sander Fischer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 11 |
| 12 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1231.00 | 1078.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1492.33 | 1384.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.63 | 8.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |