← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Thu, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 89% | 89% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 3% | 5% | 29.80 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 23' | ⚽ | Siem de Jong · AFC Ajax |
| 39' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 40' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 56' | 🟨 | Hicham Faik · SBV Excelsior |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jordy de Wijs · SBV Excelsior |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 86' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 196.00 | 500.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1796.34 | 1444.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.56 | -27.71 |
| eye test v1 | 2.14 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 32.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.03 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 11.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 21.18 | — |
| state index | 1.41 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |