← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 60% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.19 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 17% | 16% | 5.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Darryl Lachman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 11' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Vitesse |
| 13' | ⚽ | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 23' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 560.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1581.65 | 1453.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.28 | 5.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 5.79 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |