← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 68% | 74% | 1.44 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.83 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 12% | 9% | 8.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 43' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 44' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 957.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.25 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1715.88 | 1490.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.71 | -7.31 |
| eye test v1 | 1.81 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |