← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 52% | 58% | 1.89 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 23% | 19% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 30' | 🟨 | Henk Dijkhuizen · Roda JC |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 68' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 73' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Henk Dijkhuizen · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Henk Dijkhuizen · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1411.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1480.80 | 1398.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.47 | -0.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |