← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 44% | 40% | 2.22 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.65 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 32' | ⚽ | Terell Ondaan · PEC Zwolle |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 50' | 🟨 | Guus Til · AZ |
| 76' | 🟨 | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fredrik Midtsjø · AZ |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 194.00 | 1198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 6.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1563.21 | 1629.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.51 | 37.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 68.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 20.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.42 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |