← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 37% | 34% | 2.61 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 37% | 37% | 2.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Jos Hooiveld · FC Twente '65 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Peet Bijen · NAC Breda |
| 61' | ⚽ | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bart Meijers · NAC Breda |
| 66' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · FC Twente '65 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 87' | 🟨 | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nigel Bertrams · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 803.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1414.30 | 1448.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.68 | -34.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |