← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 41% | 45% | 2.40 | value: +7% |
| Roda JC win | 34% | 28% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 58' | 🟥 | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 192.00 | 496.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1395.87 | 1538.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.28 | 2.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |