← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 56% | 49% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 18% | 25% | 5.37 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Danny Holla · FC Twente '65 |
| 17' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 21' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Björn Johnsen · FC Twente '65 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tom Boere · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 69.00 | 1407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1459.75 | 1469.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.76 | -17.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |