← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 42% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 30% | 41% | 3.26 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 32' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 64' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 65' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 83' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 83' | 🟥 | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jinty Caenepeel · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 495.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1453.38 | 1554.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.71 | 21.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |