← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 73% | 72% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.40 | value: +6% |
| Heracles win | 11% | 12% | 8.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 43' | 🟨 | Roland Baas · Heracles |
| 55' | ⚽ (og) | Bram Castro · AZ |
| 75' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 85' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tim van de Berg · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
| 13 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1195.00 | 1226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 6.65 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1619.26 | 1502.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.64 | -9.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |