← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 51% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.87 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 24% | 22% | 4.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 50' | ⚽ | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 88' | 🟨 | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 555.00 | 799.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1456.74 | 1411.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.50 | 11.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |