← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 54% | 55% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 22% | 21% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Livio Milts · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Livio Milts · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 185.00 | 550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1384.07 | 1507.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.94 | -19.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| league points | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.21 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |