← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 45% | 42% | 2.17 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 28% | 31% | 3.51 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Milan Massop · SBV Excelsior |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 25' | 🟨 | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 27' | 🟨 | Fabian Sporkslede · NAC Breda |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Thierry Ambrose · NAC Breda |
| 64' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 77' | ⚽ | Paolo Fernandes · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 794.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1395.79 | 1468.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.34 | 12.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.49 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |