← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 73% | 71% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.84 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 10% | 15% | 9.54 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Stefan Thesker · FC Twente '65 |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jos Hooiveld · FC Twente '65 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | 🟨 | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | ⚽ | Stefan Thesker · FC Twente '65 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tom Boere · FC Twente '65 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · AFC Ajax |
| 63' | ⚽ | Stefan Thesker · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 79' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | ⚽ | Tom Boere · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 24 |
| 10 | On target | 12 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 62.00 | 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1453.24 | 1783.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.85 | 17.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 1.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| league points | 9.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 21.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 21.13 |
| state index | -0.73 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |