← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 39% | 37% | 2.48 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 34% | 34% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.72 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Uriel Antuna · FC Groningen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 89' | ⚽ | Juninho Bacuna · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1400.00 | 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1488.31 | 1519.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.13 | -30.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |