← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 56% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.98 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 19% | 20% | 5.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 71' | 🟥 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 87' | ⚽ | Matthew Miazga · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luc Castaignos · Vitesse |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 543.00 | 1394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1567.32 | 1497.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.06 | 13.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |