← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 47% | 54% | 2.08 | value: +11% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 27% | 21% | 3.61 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 50' | 🟨 | Craig Goodwin · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 55' | ⚽ | Nick Proschwitz · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 70' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1060.00 | 879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1393.42 | 1624.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.64 | 8.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |