← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 92% | 92% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 5% | 4% | 18.00 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 2% | 3% | 45.00 | value: +55% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mario Engels · Roda JC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 85' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 178.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1780.62 | 1386.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.86 | -7.29 |
| eye test v1 | 2.06 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 21.41 | — |
| state index | 1.59 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |