← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paulus van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 51% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Angeliño · NAC Breda |
| 15' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 23' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamiro Monteiro · Heracles |
| 55' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · NAC Breda |
| 80' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 1212.00 | 786.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.01 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1513.32 | 1401.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.30 | -21.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.05 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |