← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 65% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.76 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 14% | 21% | 6.87 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Tonny Vilhena · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 481.00 | 939.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 5.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1529.69 | 1700.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.98 | -45.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |