← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 67% | 59% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.19 | value: +15% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 14% | 19% | 6.84 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 70' | ⚽ | Joris van Overeem · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1180.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 6.42 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1602.98 | 1460.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.24 | -47.82 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| league points | 25.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |