← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 64% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.41 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 14% | 15% | 6.80 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
| 40' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 56' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 64' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 88' | ⚽ | Zakaria El Azzouzi · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 872.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1617.35 | 1478.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.49 | 15.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |