← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 63% | 54% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 28% | 4.99 | value: +42% |
| Roda JC win | 17% | 18% | 5.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
| 44' | 🟨 | Guus Til · AZ |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mats Seuntjens · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 171.00 | 1175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 6.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1392.71 | 1596.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.62 | 19.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |