← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 41% | 50% | 2.37 | value: +18% |
| FC Groningen win | 32% | 27% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Kasper Larsen · Vitesse |
| 37' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 47' | 🟨 | Todd Kane · FC Groningen |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Fankaty Dabo · FC Groningen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kasper Larsen · FC Groningen |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 65' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yoell Van Nieff · FC Groningen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Vitesse |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 82' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 83' | 🟥 | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 475.00 | 536.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1514.62 | 1576.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.00 | -14.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |