← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 43% | 39% | 2.29 | fair |
| Heracles win | 32% | 31% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.80 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 28' | ⚽ | Melvyn Lorenzen · ADO Den Haag |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 75' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | 🟨 | Dries Wuytens · Heracles |
| 83' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 89' | ⚽ | Elson Hooi · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1387.00 | 1206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1481.01 | 1530.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.58 | 6.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |