← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 37% | 53% | 2.63 | value: +41% ⚠ |
| SC Heerenveen win | 36% | 23% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 27' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · SC Heerenveen |
| 43' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fredrik Jensen · FC Twente '65 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · SC Heerenveen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cristian Cuevas · FC Twente '65 |
| 87' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 48.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1481.52 | 1496.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.70 | -50.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| league points | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |