← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 78% | 76% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.70 | value: +14% |
| NAC Breda win | 8% | 7% | 12.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 18' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 26' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 29' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 32' | 🟨 | Angeliño · NAC Breda |
| 33' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 73' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 75' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 13 | Shots | 30 |
| 6 | On target | 14 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 779.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1408.18 | 1773.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.59 | 22.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 1.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 21.55 |
| state index | -0.80 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |