← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 67% | 55% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 26% | 4.90 | value: +26% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 13% | 19% | 7.58 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 44' | ⚽ | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 86' | ⚽ | Karim El Ahmadi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1373.00 | 919.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 4.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1476.32 | 1713.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.21 | -46.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |