← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 80% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | value: +5% |
| FC Utrecht win | 8% | 5% | 12.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 19' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 29' | 🟨 | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 84' | ⚽ | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 157.00 | 858.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1789.78 | 1601.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.41 | -25.96 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 21.48 | — |
| state index | 1.51 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |