← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 50% | 44% | 1.95 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 27% | 34% | 3.66 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Heracles |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Lars Veldwijk · FC Groningen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 81' | 🟨 | Django Warmerdam · FC Groningen |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Jeff Hardeveld · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 1191.00 | 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1539.09 | 1539.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.54 | -31.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 23.64 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |