← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 68% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.14 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 13% | 11% | 7.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 25' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jordens Peters · Willem II Tilburg |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 54' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 64' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ismail Azzaoui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 86' | 🟥 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1160.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 6.33 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1592.19 | 1448.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.76 | 14.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |