← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 44% | 41% | 2.24 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 30% | 35% | 3.26 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Nemanja Mihajlović · SC Heerenveen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 76' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frederik Holst · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1037.00 | 520.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1388.87 | 1498.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.07 | -40.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |