← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 68% | 72% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.06 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 13% | 11% | 7.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 19' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 22' | ⚽ | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 25' | 🟨 | Zakaria Labyad · FC Utrecht |
| 48' | ⚽ | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 73' | 🟨 | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 78' | ⚽ | Nick Venema · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 851.00 | 759.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1607.68 | 1400.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.98 | 8.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.76 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 57.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |