← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 46% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Loris Brogno · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | 🟨 | Loris Brogno · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mark Veenhoven · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1032.00 | 454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1376.08 | 1535.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.55 | -32.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |