← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 39% | 27% | 2.49 | fair |
| AZ win | 36% | 54% | 2.68 | value: +44% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 23' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nicolai Naess · SC Heerenveen |
| 29' | 🟨 | Yuki Kobayashi · SC Heerenveen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 56' | 🟨 | Fredrik Midtsjø · AZ |
| 63' | 🟨 | Stijn Schaars · SC Heerenveen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 73' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 515.00 | 1154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 10.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 6.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1507.88 | 1582.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.05 | -8.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |