← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 56% | 62% | 1.75 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.11 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 21% | 15% | 4.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Piotr Parzyszek · PEC Zwolle |
| 11' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 31' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · ADO Den Haag |
| 40' | 🟨 | Donny Gorter · ADO Den Haag |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 149.00 | 1365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1533.14 | 1486.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.04 | 25.98 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.80 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |