← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 75% | 79% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.13 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 9% | 7% | 11.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Willem II Tilburg |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Etien Velikonja · Willem II Tilburg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ben Rienstra · Willem II Tilburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Siem de Jong · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 24 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 514.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1453.24 | 1784.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.92 | 11.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 1.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.60 |
| squad age | — | 21.47 |
| state index | -0.11 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |