← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 76% | 72% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.24 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 9% | 12% | 11.23 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 17' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mohamed El Makrini · Roda JC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bart Nieuwkoop · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 32 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 16 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 149.00 | 911.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1392.59 | 1719.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.53 | -46.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |