← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 27% | 27% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · Vitesse |
| 36' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 50' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 72' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 508.00 | 508.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1526.45 | 1589.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.96 | 2.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |