← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 65% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.56 | value: +8% |
| Roda JC win | 14% | 15% | 6.90 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 27' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · FC Twente '65 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 20.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1492.09 | 1403.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |