← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 49% | 43% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.66 | value: +14% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 25% | 26% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 446.00 | 1024.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1456.60 | 1372.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.13 | -19.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |