← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 42% | 27% | 2.35 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 32% | 43% | 3.08 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · FC Twente '65 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Oussama Assaidi · FC Twente '65 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Willem II Tilburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ismail Azzaoui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Tsimikas · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 501.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1422.56 | 1508.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.84 | 2.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |