← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 46% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 52' | 🟨 | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Oussama Idrissi · FC Groningen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ruben Jenssen · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 440.00 | 1140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 10.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 6.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1551.67 | 1563.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.07 | -11.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |