← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 41% | 48% | 2.41 | value: +15% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 32% | 27% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 7' | ⚽ | Jinty Caenepeel · SBV Excelsior |
| 13' | 🟨 | Kevin Vermeulen · SBV Excelsior |
| 21' | 🟨 | Milan Massop · SBV Excelsior |
| 26' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 26' | 🟥 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 32' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 34' | 🟨 | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | ⚽ | Hicham Faik · SBV Excelsior |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 23 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1352.00 | 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1483.99 | 1443.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.36 | -16.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |