← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 51% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.88 | value: +10% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 24% | 20% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Stijn Schaars · SC Heerenveen |
| 26' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · FC Utrecht |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lucas Woudenberg · SC Heerenveen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · SC Heerenveen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · FC Utrecht |
| 64' | 🟨 | Robin Van der Meer · FC Utrecht |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lukas Görtler · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 836.00 | 500.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1615.93 | 1535.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.18 | 43.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.64 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |