← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 38% | 32% | 2.60 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 35% | 39% | 2.83 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | 🟨 | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rai Vloet · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richelor Sprangers · NAC Breda |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days | 135.00 | 744.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1393.92 | 1422.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.27 | 24.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 65.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.83 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |