← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bernie Raymond Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 87% | 90% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 10.74 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 4% | 3% | 23.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Sanusi · AFC Ajax |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sander Fischer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Sherel Constancio Floranus · AFC Ajax |
| 73' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 76' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · AFC Ajax |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 6 |
| 14 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 135.00 | 1017.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1762.76 | 1374.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.76 | -14.71 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 21.45 | — |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |