← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 56% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.08 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 20% | 20% | 4.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 17' | 🟨 | Mikhael Rosheuvel · Roda JC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Tsiy-William Ndenge · Roda JC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Rutjes · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| coach days | 1004.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1386.62 | 1382.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.76 | -38.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| league points | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |