← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 59% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.34 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 19% | 23% | 5.20 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Kik Pierie · SC Heerenveen |
| 24' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 34' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 38' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 41' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | 🟨 | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 58' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lucas Woudenberg · SC Heerenveen |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | ⚽ | Maximilian Wöber · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Mihajlović · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 487.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1547.08 | 1751.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.01 | -28.74 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 1.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 21.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 21.59 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |